The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (ticker symbol, VIX) has been all over the proverbial map this week to date. It is often regarded as the fear index. Go here to read more detail on the Volatility Index.

A higher VIX reflects increased fear while a lower VIX reflects the opposite. Until last Friday (Feb. 2), the index varied over the past year between a low of 8.56 just this past November (meaning very low fear or complacency) to 17.28 this past August. Last Thursday (Feb. 1), it closed at 13.47. Then the next day it closed at 17.31. Last Friday was when the fireworks started in terms of this recent large downturn in the major stock indices and wild swings intra-day.

This week (first four trading days through today, Thursday, Feb. 8), the VIX has ranged between 16.8 and 50.3. I did some digging and found that the VIX reached its all-time peak of 89.53 at the time of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in September of 2008. Of course, this was a major domino in the panic of the months to come that moved the major indices to their ultimate lows of March 2009.

Since March 2009, the VIX has only breached 50 once, hitting  53.29 during a one-day “flash-crash” on August 24, 2015, until this past Tuesday when it hit that 50.3 mark. Go here to read about that August 24, 2015 event. It’s interesting to read in light of pundit explanations of this week’s crazy activity.

I’m pretty simple-minded. It seems to me that in 2008 there was obvious, imminent reason for macro economic concern to grip the investment community and the VIX reflected that as did the major stock indices. In recent days, I see a stock market that has likely gotten well ahead of itself but not amid a backdrop of obvious, imminent reason for macro economic concern. In fact, almost all leading economic indicators reflect a strong economy. Yet the VIX of this week reflects a type of panic seen in the early 2009 era.

The word offered up by most experts this week as a potential explanation is inflation. The thinking is that inflation has become a rather sudden concern, showing up in the VIX and major market indices. While inflation is a concern for future earnings, it perhaps seems premature for market participants to run for the exits given there’s not a lot of data just yet. Wages have risen by latest measure and the brand new Fed head is seen by many as being hawkish in his view toward raising interest rates. I heard today on TV that he could raise more often and in larger increments than previously expected; but certainly the jury is still out on what’s ahead. Inflation can indeed hurt future earnings and that does at some point historically lead to a stock market retreat

In closing, it’s my thinking that the activity of recent days shows panic in the VIX number but is not accompanied by a backdrop justifying imminent concern. Now, a correction was probably long overdue. Yet, the past days have revealed something that feels like more than correction. But even if we have further to fall, I think it will turn out to be nothing more than a correction for the time being. My hope is that the recent jolt will serve to finally produce a hard look at our real underlying economic threat.

It’s not simply inflation and higher interest rates that can undo us economically. In my view, it’s the ever-growing national debt that threatens us. If the national debt was not so critically high, inflation/higher interest rates could eventually set us back for a spell as has happened throughout history but not bring about financial ruin. The size of our national debt makes inflation and the higher interest rates that go with it very problematic today because incremental increases in interest rates now mean gargantuan increases in required interest payments on the debt. My hope is that our government leaders will start to seriously take actions on reducing wasteful spending and getting its financial house in order. We need to balance the budget and start paying down the debt right now or inflation will become a bigger and bigger word!