If you took economics in school, you might recall the role of Investment relative to its impact on growth and health of an economy. For brevity, go here to see how our Gross Domestic Product is measured relative to business invested capital.

Investment is crucial to our economic growth because of its “multiplier effect.” Back in 2008, credit froze and this, in turn, was causing business investment to dry up. While Consumer spending is another important component of our economic measure known as GDP, it is Investment that creates the infrastructure for jobs which produce incomes for spending and saving and thereby additional investing — and the wheel turns (multiplication happens).

Much is said pro and con about the Fed’s activity since we reached a state of deep recession in early 2009. Indeed, Investment could not cease for us to have a job market.

What has resulted leaves the best of economists taking positions all over the proverbial map today. Does anyone really know to what degree the printing press has intruded upon free and efficient market activity today?

Let me delve into the oil and gas realm a moment. In my personal opinion, oil and gas may be the key component now relative to what comes next. Cheaper prices have added to consumer pocketbooks. Will some of this money be saved for helping others and for investing in the future or will it be largely emptied on more toys? We really do need to invest in our future.

Also, an expansion in oil and gas requires much infrastructure and thereby requires healthy investment dollars, leading to many jobs. While the consumer has more in the pocket from cheaper prices at the pump, will the money be used wisely enough now to offset the current contraction in energy investment due to energy company slowdowns?

In closing this post, I guess I was provoked to write some thoughts down as I was considering the longer term effects of various government stimulus activity. I’m not suggesting it caused what’s going on in oil and gas. However, cause and effect of economic issues has become much more confusing. Further, it seems that while the stock market has recovered and set records since hitting bottom in 2009, we remain significantly dependent on what the Fed does next.